The 2004 Hong Kong July 1 March Crowd Estimates

In last year's post The Hong Kong 7/1 March: Crowd Size Estimates, I left this comment:

Anyone who continues to quote the 530,000 number is either lazy, or initimidated, or partisan.

I say that because anyone who paid even minimal attention and had an ounce of integrity would know that 530,000 could not be the true number in 2004.  In 2003, the only number out there was 500,000, so there was no debate.  In 2004, the organizers claimed 530,000 based upon an erroneous assumption while the consensus number from six other parties is under 200,000.

Now that this year's 7/1 march is approaching, people are forced to talk about last's year march and the crowd size.  In this post, I will collect some of these sayings.  You can decide who is lazy, honest, intimidated, partisan or politically adroit.  You will also enjoy the well-tortured contortions.  Most people aren't dummies who don't know or understand the issue, so they say what they say with some consideration.  This exercise will go a long way towards deciding whether the person is trustworthy for anything else in the future.

• (Agence France Presse, June 27, 2005) It has become a key date for protests since 500,000 people took to the streets against the government in 2003 and again last year.
   
• (Article 45 Concern Group/Legco member Audrey Eu in Ming Pao via Yahoo! News):
   
  雖然人大常委會在04年4月主動釋法，已經否決在07及08年普選行政長官和立法會，然而去年七一遊行以「爭取07、08普選」為主題，依然得到數十萬市民支持.
  [translation]  Although the National People's Congress Standing Committee had taken the initiative of interpreting the Basic Law in April 2004 to deny direct elections for the Chief Executive in 2007 and the Legislative Council in 2008, last year's July 1 march with the principal theme of "Fight for direct elections in 2007 and 2008" still had the support for several hundreds of thousands of citziens.
   
• (The Standard, July 27, 2005)  Emily Lau, of the Frontier ... said Tsang had ignored the fact that half a million residents - roughly 7 percent of the population - marched last July to protest against Beijing's veto of direct elections for chief executive in 2007 and the legislature in 2008.
   
• (The Standard, Dennis Chong and Stephanie Yeung, July 28, 2005)  Friday will mark the eighth anniversary of Hong Kong's reunification with China - an occasion marked by two consecutive half-million strong pro-democracy rallies in 2003 and 2004 that have become a symbol of the day.
   
• (Asia Times, Gary LaMoshi, June 29, 2005)  For the hundreds of thousands of Hong Kong citizens who marched in anti-government protests during the past two years to mark the anniversary of the July 1, 1997 handover to Chinese sovereignty, the situation on this anniversary would likely have been embraced as an acceptable response to their pleas.
   
• (The Standard, Dennis Chong and Stephanie Yeung, July 29, 2005)  Friday will mark the eighth anniversary of Hong Kong's reunification with China - an occasion marked by two consecutive half-million strong pro-democracy rallies in 2003 and 2004 that have become a symbol of the day.
   
• (SCMP, July 29, 2005)  Barrister Alan Leong Kah-kit, legislator of the Article 45 Concern Group, said many people might adopt a wait-and-see attitude this year to give Mr Tsang time to prove himself.  But he said even if the turnout on Friday was lower than the 500,000 seen in the past two years, it should not be taken as a sign that people's desire for a quicker pace of democracy had weakened. 
   
• (FT.com, Alexandra Harney, June 29, 2005)  Last year, hundreds of thousands of people took part in a march on the same day also the anniversary of Hong Kong's 1997 return from British to Chinese sovereignty to demand greater democracy.
   
• (The Standard, Dennis Chong, June 30, 2005)  In 2003, half a million people took to the streets to protest against the proposed Article 23 anti-subversion bill that was later shelved.  Last year, a similar number marched calling for full democracy, including direct elections for the chief executive in 2007 and Legislative Council in 2008, both of which have been vetoed by the central government.
   
• (SCMP, by Jimmy Cheung, June 30, 2005)  Twelve undergraduates from different disciplines will count demonstrators from the footbridge at the junction of Arsenal Street and Hennessy Road.  Thomson Hui Chung-sum, a member of the research group, said they would count the number of people passing below for one minute and then again every other minute. The figures will be released every half hour. The size of last year's turnout was disputed, with the march's organiser, the Civil Human Rights Front, saying 530,000 attended while the police said 200,000. The academic group, which involved pollster Robert Chung Ting-yiu, estimated that between 180,000 and 210,000 people took part; while another study by the Hong Kong University Social Science Research Centre put the figure between 105,000 and 120,000.
   
• (Article 45 Concern Group/Legco member Ronny Tong in Ming Pao via Yahoo! News)
  究竟曾先生所倚仗的1200多個電話訪問具代表性﹖還是過去兩年超過50萬人於七一遊行中所表達的意見具代表性﹖
  [translation]  Is the 1,200 or so telephone interviews that Mr. Tsang depended upon more representative?  Or the opinions expressed by the more than 500,000 people in the last two July 1st marches more representative?
   
• (Apple Daily, July 1, 2005)  Last year, 530,000 people went out on the street to participate in the July 1 march.
   
• (BBC News, July 1, 2005)  Last year, an estimated 200,000 protesters marched again to demand direct elections for Hong Kong's leader by 2007.
   
• (The Standard,  Dennis Chong and Teddy Ng.  July 2, 2005)  But the turnout was far lower than the half a million who marched in 2003 and again in 2004 - and was less than half the 50,000 organizers had expected.
   
• (ChineseNewsNet)  在2003年和2004年，都有數以十萬計的香港人上街。
  [translation]  In 2003 and 2004, there were hundreds of thousands of Hong Kong people in the streets.
   
• (Voice of America)  Since the July 1 march started in 2003, the number of people went from 500,000 down to last year's 200,000 plus to this year's 20,000 or so.
   
• (SCMP, Klaudia Lee, July 3, 2005)  This year's July 1 march drew 21,000 people according to organisers' estimates, in stark contrast to those of the previous two years, when half a million people took to the streets.
   
• (AFP, Mark McCord, July 3; via China Post)  Hong Kong activists were struggling to put a brave face on an annual march for democracy in the Chinese territory Friday after it drew far fewer protesters than previous years.  They denied the city's once formidable campaign for universal suffrage had lost its bite despite the turnout being estimated by organizers at 21,000 people, way down on the half a million that marched for reform the past two years. Police put the figure at 11,000.
   
• (Associated Press, Helen Luk, July 5)  In the past two years, a half million people joined the rallies that have demanded the right to directly elect leaders and the entire legislature.